Correlation, Causation, and Coincidence

I've been running around again. I'm back to CVille and to work, but before that I was out of town and away from my computer for almost a week, driving to New York, then flying to Georgia, with my "little" brother to get him set up for his new life in grad school. (I use the quotes because the 21-year-old is 6'2, more than a foot taller than me!) During my travel, I got a little reminder of one of my favorite logical fallacies:

Correlation does not necessarily imply causation.

Detecting baloney with the best of 'em... Carl Sagan.

This one comes in handy when reading that "studies show that more people with x do y." Such articles are usually written to give the impression that x causes y, when no such thing can be concluded from the work. This fallacy can also be used in an argument about anything, and it has of course been parodied in a few places.

So here is my example from my travels. On June 25th, I had two flights, one from Newark to Atlanta, and then from Atlanta to Valdosta. This was also the day on which Farrah Fawcett and Michael Jackson passed away. The news of each one broke while I was in-flight, so I learned of each when I turned my iPhone back on after landing. And I thought, well that was weird, two flights and two highly publicized celebrity deaths! Surely, strange but a coincidence. The next Sunday, I had the same flights back, in reverse. After the first flight, I learned that the news of Billy Mays's death had broken while I was in flight. At this point, it's safe to say that there was a correlation between my flights and celebrity deaths. However, is this a good reason for me to miss my next flight, as to prevent another one?

Well, no, I took the last flight (bumped to first class, mind you) without guilt, knowing that I would not be the cause of loss of life in that way. Just because two things occur simultaneously, without a plausible method for their connection, or other supporting evidence, there is no reason to think that one has caused the other, or even that they have a similar cause. (Do pirates expel less carbon dioxide? I didn't think so.) Well surely, this situation is an amazing coincidence? Okay, but for all of the possible coincidences that *could* occur to all people, all over the world, is it any surprise that a small fraction of them do happen? As a pattern-seeking species, we look for significance in random events, but sometimes we just have to accept that they are random. Think about that the next time you want to associate one seemingly random occurrence with another, or try to find meaning in life's coincidences.

For the record, the US soccer team did get beaten by Brazil right before take-off of our last flight. A small death for some? Only if looking too hard for patterns.

Cross-posted at One Astronomer's Noise

Does God's watchful eye keep us in line?

Skeptics member JC recently wrote a great letter to the editor, which appeared in the Hook!

The Hook published an essay a couple months ago discussing if we need the guidance of religion or God watching over us in order to inspire kindness.

Unfortunately The Hook made JC edit down his letter, but the original Hook essay, JC's published letter and his original longer version are all available here (click on essay):

http://www.meetup.com/The-C-ville-Skeptics-Group/files/

(Essay wasn't available online - so this file is a scan. PDF may take a minute to download).

We had a good discussion related to this topic at tonight's meeting! So what do you think, does religion or a watchful god contribute to good behavior or altruism?

Skeptical Podcasts

This has been bouncing around Twitter a bit as of yesterday: Skeptcast. It's a great little resource for those looking for something to listen to. These podcasts are educational, entertaining, and skeptical! I'm already subscribed to a bunch of these, and I enjoy them immensely. Warning, you may LOL or cheer out loud at work while listening!

A guide to Skeptical Etiquette

Tip o' the martini glass to the Bad Astronomer who links to a great piece of writing by Allyson Beatrice at Cocktail Party Physics called "Skeptic Etiquette." It's an amusing and charming look at how a skeptic or non-believer can deal with their credulous friends and colleagues in a polite setting. After all, you might want to be a fun, friendly voice of reason, not that cranky old nay-sayer.

On a related note, Rebecca at Skepchick posts a link to Tim Minchin's "Storm" now on YouTube. It's a fun example of what you really might want to say at that dinner party with the credulous person. Warning: contains some curses, so don't play it with other people's kiddies around!

What is a Skeptic?

There's been some discussion on the email list about the name of our group, and I'd like to throw in my two cents here.

To say that someone is a skeptic does not say much about that person's religious beliefs, or lack thereof. In fact, it may be that religion is the farthest thing from that person's mind. As an atheist, I lack belief in a god or gods. But that can be a pretty boring topic of conversation time and time again. Morally, I align myself with much of secular humanism, but I'd rather do good things than talk about what is good. No, I was never so great at philosophy.

Skepticism, for me, is a whole other ball game. To be a skeptic is to challenge and question everything, whether it be belief in a god, talking to ghosts, alternative medicine, or a new product that is being sold on a television commercial. Every person uses a bit of skepticism when making every day decisions, and everyone can stand to use a bit more. For this reason, I think that to be a skeptic is the most practical way to be, and that skepticism is actually the most inclusive term. Anyone can apply observation and critical thinking skills to a problem, even if it does take time to hone those skills. A person armed with a "baloney detection kit" at all times is acting as a skeptic. Most of us will have our skeptical alarm bells set off if a stranger in a parking lot offers to hold our purse while we load groceries into our car. My skeptical alarm will surely sound whenever I hear a claim for diet pills or magnetic therapy. Most people will balk if you tell them that the Virgin Mary appeared on your grilled cheese sandwich. Skeptics are the ones with the answer when someone asks, "What's the harm in believing?"

Skeptics aren't just curmudgeonly naysayers, either. Most that I've met have a deep appreciation for science, and the wonderful ways in which our universe works. For them, reality is enough to explore. There is no need for the "supernatural." Look at all the fabulous things we can learn through evidence and reason! For example, every atom in your body, that is not hydrogen or helium, was formed in the core of a massive star many billions of years ago, or in the explosive aftermath that marked its death, called a supernova. In the words of one of the greatest skeptics of the modern age, and one of my personal heroes, Carl Sagan, "The Earth and every living thing are made of star stuff." I highly recommend Sagan's Demon Haunted World to anyone for an introduction into Sagan's thought processes, and I have a copy that is available to borrow!

So, I guess that's why I'm happy with the name Skeptics' Group, or Skeptics' Society, or CVille Skeptics, or Skeptical Badasses, whatever sounds coolest. It's a positive way of saying, "we're a thinking bunch of people, and nothing is safe from our rational approach to life!"

I'd also encourage you to check out a longer article, "What is Skepticism?" by Sam Ogden over at Skepchick. It talks abut skepticism as a handy-dandy toolkit for investigating claims, whether it be everyday or not-so-ordinary, and how it is like "science express."

Podcast alert

UVA Astronomy Professor Ed Murphy with the top 8 space stories of 2008

Click!
http://www.cvillepodcast.com/2009/01/11/ed-murphy/

Molecule self-replicates in lab

IT'S ALIVE!!!!

"Obviously what we're trying to do is make a biology," says Gerald Joyce, a biochemist at the Scripps Research Institute in La Jolla, California. He hopes to imbue his team's molecule with all the fundamental properties of life: self-replication, evolution, and function.

Whole story:

http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn16382-artificial-molecule-evolves-in-the-lab.html?DCMP=OTC-rss&nsref=online-news


Photo credit

Reminder: Social Hour Jan. 22!

Click here to join & RSVP!

Is "Dear Abby" a skeptic!?

Well I've read enough of her column to surmise that, at the very least, she regularly panders to the religious, but this particular response made me say Woah!

DEAR ABBY: I have a "pennies from heaven" story you might appreciate. My best friend, "Darrel," was a smoker who collected quarters. His apartment had two distinguishing features -- stacks of quarters and the smell of secondhand smoke. Because we were both busy people, we had seen each other only twice in about a year, but maintained a phone and e-mail friendship.

I had planned a trip out west to spend time with family and had e-mailed him about it. Unbeknownst to me, Darrel had been very ill, and he died the day I sent the e-mail. I learned about it while I was in transit to my destination. There was nothing I could do. I had no way to get to his funeral and no way to say goodbye.

When we reached our hotel -- part of a smoke-free chain -- my husband and I opened the door to our room and were greeted by a familiar odor. It smelled just like Darrel's apartment! And when I walked to the dresser to unpack, two quarters were sitting on top. It was then that my husband and I agreed that Darrel had stopped to say goodbye on his way to heaven. -- QUARTERS FROM HEAVEN

DEAR QUARTERS: Please accept my sympathy for the loss of your friend. I'm glad you received some comfort in your time of need. However, it's entirely possible that the guest who occupied the room before you broke the rules and puffed away in a room that was supposed to be nonsmoking. I hope you notified the front desk so you could be switched to other accommodations, and the room could be thoroughly cleaned and deodorized to prevent someone with a sensitivity to smoke from walking in and experiencing a severe allergic reaction.

Some updates to our "About" page

Check it out here! Let me know if there are any links you'd like me to add:
http://www.meetup.com/The-C-ville-Skeptics-Group/about/